The natural history of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease with advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis

The natural history of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease with advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis: An international collaborative study†

Neeraj Bhala1,2,3,*,‡, Paul Angulo4,5, David van der Poorten3, Eric Lee3,
Jason M. Hui3, Giorgio Saracco6, Leon A. Adams5,7, Punchai Charatcharoenwitthaya5,8,
Joanne H. Topping10, Elisabetta Bugianesi9, Christopher P. Day10, Jacob George3

DOI: 10.1002/hep.24491

Abstract

Information on the long-term prognosis of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is limited. We sought to describe the long-term morbidity and mortality of patients with NAFLD with advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis.

We conducted this prospective cohort study including 247 patients with NAFLD and 264 patients with HCV infection that were either naïve or non-responders to treatment. Both cohorts were Child-Pugh class A and had advanced (stage 3) fibrosis or cirrhosis (stage 4) confirmed by liver biopsy at enrolment.

In the NAFLD cohort, followed-up for 85.6 months mean (range 6-297), there were 48 (19.4%) liver-related complications and 33 (13.4%) deaths or liver transplants. In the HCV cohort, followed-up for 74.9 months mean (range 6-238), there were 47 (16.7%) liver-related complications and 25 (9.4%) deaths or liver transplants. When adjusting for baseline differences in age and gender, the cumulative incidence of liver-related complications was lower in the NAFLD than the HCV cohort (p=0.03), including incident hepatocellular cancer (6 vs 18; p=0.03), but that of cardiovascular events (p=0.17) and overall mortality (p=0.6) was similar in both groups. In the NAFLD cohort, platelet count, stage 4 fibrosis, and serum levels of cholesterol and ALT were associated with liver-related complications; an AST/ALT ratio <1 and older age were associated with overall mortality; and higher serum bilirubin levels and stage 4 fibrosis were associated with liver-related mortality.

Conclusions:
Patients with NAFLD with advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis have lower rates of liver-related complications and hepatocellular cancer than corresponding patients with HCV infection, but similar overall mortality. Some clinical and laboratory features predict outcomes in patients with NAFLD. (HEPATOLOGY 2011.)

Source