The rate of fibrosis progression in CHC patients varies markedly from person to person, and only a minority suffers from long term complications[
2]. The current use of liver biopsy for the assessment of liver histology has many drawbacks. Noninvasive assessment of liver histology has been the focus of research for many years. Isolated markers of liver cell injury and fibrosis have not proved to be sufficiently reliable for clinical use[
15]. Development of indices consisting of multiple markers is now being focused to distinguish between minimal and clinically significant fibrosis categories.
Our final index, liverscore for hepatitis C, consisted of six markers, ALT, GGT, A2M, Apo-A1, hyaluronic acid and age of the patient. AUROC with this index was found to be 0.813 for overall disease. This index was also evaluated for fibrosis stage and activity grade separately, with clinically acceptable diagnostic performance (data not shown). The negative predictive value of Liverscore for Hepatitis C at a cutoff level of ≤ 0.40 was 83%. All the patients (7/40) diagnosed as false negatives had F2 fibrosis and minimal activity. For the positive predictive value, a cutoff level ≥ 0.80 was found suitable, with a PPV of 89%. At this cutoff, two patients out of 20 were false positives, both had F1 fibrosis. The diagnostic performance of this index in terms of AUROC is comparable to other similar indices reported in the literature.
Forns’ index[
16] consists of age of the patient, GGT, cholesterol, and platelets. AUROC was 0.86 in the formulation and 0.81 in the validation group. Using the cut off score of less then 4.2, presence of significant fibrosis could be excluded in 36% (125/351) patients, with a NPV of 96% in the formulation group. The majority of the patients in this cohort had genotype 1. This index includes cholesterol, which is metabolized differently in genotype 3; it has been suggested[
17] that this index might not perform well in patients having genotype 3, the most common genotype affecting the Pakistani population[
18].
AST to platelet ratio index (APRI) is a very simple and widely validated index that amplifies the opposing effects of liver fibrosis on AST and platelet counts[
19]. The AUROC curve of APRI for prediction of significant fibrosis remained 0.80 in training and 0.88 in the validation set. In one study from Pakistan[
20], it showed an AUROC of 0.82 for significant fibrosis. At a cutoff point of less then 0.5, the authors could exclude the presence of significant fibrosis in 36% (43/120) patients, with an NPV of 78%. Our index performed slightly better than this at a cutoff point of less then 0.40, with the exclusion of 41% patients and an NPV of 83%. Our index has a better NPV and these scores were present in 41% (40/98) patients. This has a clinical advantage of identifying patients that can safely be deferred for urgent treatment.
Patented Fibrotest
® for fibrosis consists of age and gender of the patient, GGT, total bilirubin, haptoglobin, A2M and Apo A-1. In addition, the same authors have also reported Actitest
® for necroinflammation, which includes ALT in addition to Fibrotest
® biomarkers[
13]. This is the most widely validated noninvasive marker and is in clinical use. The AUROC for the identification of liver fibrosis was 0.84 and 0.87 for the formulation and validation group, respectively. The PPV of this index was excellent (more then 90% certainty of presence of F2, F3 or F4) for scores ranging from 0.60 to 1.00 (34% of all patients). This index could exclude the presence of significant fibrosis in 12% of patients, with a high negative predictive value (100% certainty of absence of F2, F3 or F4) for scores ranging from zero to 0.10. This high accuracy of Fibrotest was not uniform in different populations. A study carried out by Rossi et al., in the Australian population demonstrated, a PPV of 78% at a Fibrotest
®score of more then 0.6 and an NPV of 85% at less then 0.1. We included all the components of Fibrotest
® in our initial analysis; however, haptoglobin and gender of the patients were not discriminative of minimal and clinically significant disease in our cohort of patients in univariate analysis. Thus, these were not included in the final index.
Hepascore consists of age and gender of the patient, bilirubin, A2M and HA. For significant fibrosis, it showed an AUROC of 0.85 and 0.82 in the training and validation groups, respectively. A score of ≥ 0.5 was 92% specific and 67% sensitive in the training set and 89% specific and 63% sensitive in the validation group. At this cutoff it provided high PPVs of 87% and 88% in the training and validation set, respectively[
22]. Authors have not reported negative predictive values for significant fibrosis. We have all the data required for the calculation of Hepascore and will evaluate the performance of this score in our patients.
All the above mentioned scores either predict fibrosis or activity. One advantage of our index is its prediction for overall disease, which includes both fibrosis stage and activity grade. Both these histopathological categories are important for prognosis and making treatment decisions[
23].
Furthermore, the majority of the previous indices have been reported in populations infected predominantly with HCV genotype 1. Evidence points towards the possibility that HCV genotype 3 associated CHC is a metabolically different disease[
24]. Our index might perform better in genotype 3 patients, because it is formulated in a population predominantly infected with this genotype[
18].
All the factors included in our index are available and easily programmable on automated instruments in routine clinical laboratories. Furthermore, factors included in the Liverscore for Hepatitis C have physiological rationale.
Gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase is synthesized by the liver cells, its synthesis increases with fibrosis. The mechanisms for this increase could be the stimulation of GGT synthesis by epidermal growth factor during fibrogenesis[
25]. ALT is synthesized by hepatocytes and its release into serum is related to liver cell injury[
26]. The synthesis of A2M increases during stellate cell activation in the course of fibrogenesis, and its serum concentration increases with fibrosis[
27]. In liver fibrosis, Apo A-1 release from the hepatocytes is hampered by the collagen fibers decreasing its serum levels[
28]. Hyaluronic acid is a nonsulfated glycosaminoglycan and is major component of extracellular matrix. Among the direct markers of liver fibrosis, HA has been most extensively studied in CHC. It increases in the liver during fibrogenesis and is released into the systemic circulation during remodeling. Recent indices consisting of HA in combination with indirect markers have shown promising results[
22].
Some of the markers we evaluated were not helpful in differentiating minimal from significant disease. Total and direct bilirubin were significantly associated with different histological categories, but were highly correlated (
r = 0.85). Direct bilirubin was therefore excluded. Total bilirubin was included in the seven marker index, but its exclusion did not affect the diagnostic value and was thus excluded from the final index. Serum levels of ALP are known to be raised in both alcoholic and non-alcoholic liver disease with advanced histological changes. In addition, ALP has shown a discriminative value for advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis previously[
29]. It was also associated with mild and advanced fibrosis categories in our study, but not for overall disease, the primary outcome in our study, thus, we did not include ALP in our index. HYP and proline are amino acids present in collagen in large quantities. The HYP content of liver biopsies is found to increase with advancing stage of fibrosis[
30].
The evidence that fibrosis is a dynamic two way process with fibrosis and its degradation occurring simultaneously, prompted us to include these amino acids as products of collagen degradation in our panel of biomarkers. We expected their high levels in serum because of the greater amount of collagen undergoing remodeling in advanced stages. We found no association of these amino acids of collagen degradation with severity of liver fibrosis or necroinflammatory activity. HYP, however, was statistically associated with overall disease category, but actually decreased. In the only study we could find, predictive value of these amino acids in sera of CHC patients was evaluated for advanced (F3 and 4) and mild (F0, 1 and 2) fibrosis[
31]. Proline was not significantly different between the two groups, while HYP was found to be increased with advanced fibrosis, but showed a low (0.525) area under ROC curve. We found no study comparing these amino acids in minimal and significant fibrosis or overall disease. The evidence that their serum levels do not increase with increasing fibrosis might be explained by slower fibrosis degradation in advanced fibrosis. It has been shown that accumulation of fibrosis is the net effect of increased fibrogenesis and its decreased degradation[
32].
One limitation of our study was that we could not validate our results in a different cohort of patients. This was not possible because of the smaller number of patients recruited in our study. We recommend an independent study for the validation of our index.
In conclusion, a liverscore for hepatitis C of 0.40 or below excludes the presence of significant disease. Thus, it can reliably exclude around 41% of CHC patients that do not require an urgent treatment. A score of 0.80 and above confirms the presence of significant disease. Using these cutoff values, the severity of the liver disease can reliably be predicted in around 61% of the CHC patients.
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